To Guess or Not to Guess?

Many of you are wondering if guessing or not guessing is the better strategy on the upcoming SAT.

Let's think about this.

In fact, let's subject this to some good, old-fashioned analysis.

First of all, this is discussed at some length in Barron's How to Prepare for the SAT, 2007-2008 on pages 13-18.

Specifically, at the top of page 14 of Barron's How to Prepare for the SAT, these words appear in all caps:

THE BEST WAY TO INCREASE YOUR SCORE ON
THE SAT IS TO ANSWER FEWER QUESTIONS

Then again at the bottom of page 15:

THE BEST WAY TO INCREASE YOUR SCORE ON
THE SAT IS TO ANSWER FEWER QUESTIONS

Of course, on page 18, Barron's includes a chart of likely outcomes for guessing on 20 random questions, given your ability to eliminate 0, 1, 2, 3 or all 4 of the alternatives.

The verdict on page 18? If you can eliminate even one of the five choices, over the course of 20 questions, you should come out +1 on your raw score. If you can consistently eliminate all but two of the choices, over 20 questions, you should add 7.5 points to your raw score, which will add roughly 50 points to your Critical Reading of Writing scaled score, and 70 points to your scaled Math score.

Ultimately, if you have time and can eliminate at least one of the choices, the odds favor an increase in your score.

The two reasons NOT TO GUESS are these:

1) Making more time to work on the questions you feel are easiest; and

2) Not feeling rushed when taking the test. Knowing what your goal is, taking the time you need to get there. Answering questions judiciously.

And speaking of goals . . .

WHAT SCORE ARE YOU SHOOTING FOR?

If you'd like to get, say 730, you'll need to answer 63 out of 67 questions right, missing 4, for a raw score of 62.

But if you miss 6, you're down to 61 right, 2 wrong, for a 59 raw score, which is right at 700 scaled score.

When you're this close to 750, it usually pays to go for it, and answer all 67, especially if you feel comfortable with the time you have, and can eliminate at least 2 of the choices in questions you're not real sure of.

Still, as you just saw 63 -4/4 is 62 while 61 – 6/4 = 59. You may want to consider skipping one or two sticky questions if doing so provides you more certainty on the other 65 or 66.

Above all, if you are going to guess, don't agonize over it! Winnow out the bad choices, then simply choose one of the two or three left, and move on!

What if your goal is 650?

You'll need a raw score of 53 to get there.

This could mean skipping 14 questions and getting all 53 you do answer right.

But that's probably expecting too much.

Consider skipping 7 or 8, answering 59 or 60 and giving yourself room to miss 5 more.

You see, if you answer 60, but get 55 right, you'll deduct 5/4 for those mistakes, but your raw score will be 54, resulting in a final Critical Reading score of 660!

That'll work!

When I took the SAT on April 6, 1974—the first day I ever heard Bruce Springsteen, by the way. It was “Incident on 57th Street/Rosalita” and I thought I was listening to Van Morrison—I scored 660, putting me in the 98th percentile of all test takers nationally.

It can happen to you!

Point is, if 650 is your goal, ignoring some questions in favor of spending more time on others to make sure you get 'em right, is probably a smart strategy. If 650 is a legitimate goal for you, it probably means your vocabulary is strong enough to get 600s, but you haven't gotten over 650 yet. This strategy of answering questions judiciously may well work for you.

After all, the point is to bring scores up, not simply to race through and answer everything.

When you're capable of getting 800, or at least > 720, it really doesn't pay to skip any questions.

For example, on two of the 8 tests in The Official SAT Study Guide, I answered 65 right, and 2 wrong.

But because 2/4 off my 65 was still 64.5, my score got rounded back up to 65. I'd narrowed down my choices to two possibilities on each of my errors, so I had a 50/50 chance of getting that perfect score. Even if I'd gotten one right and one wrong, the real 50/50, I'd have scored 66 – ¼, still a 66, still well in the 99th percentile of all test takers.

But if I'd never gotten an 800, if my average wasn't about 767, and I only answered 65, then still got 4 wrong, my raw score would drop to 60, = ing a 710 scaled score. Maybe worth the risk if you tend to score just below 700, but again, the only point in skipping questions is to give yourself more time to make certain of your answers on other questions. And you don't get to see all 67 at once. Consider skipping two at most if you're intent on cracking that 700 mark on CR, but no more than two.

And if your goal is closer to 600?

You'll need a raw score of 46 to get a 600.

This means you can skip about a third of all the critical reading questions and get 600 on Critical Reading.

Of course, you'd have to get all 46 you do answer right.

And how hard can that be?

OK, maybe kind of.

So, go for the 650.

Seriously.

No sense skipping 20 questions when the odds say that even if you can eliminate only one of the five choices in each, you'll still end up only +1 on your raw score.

Already you're at 47 Raw Score, 610 scaled. And again:

The only real reason to skip questions is to maximize your time on questions you can get.

Remember: you don't know everything.

Nobody does.

Just KNOW WHAT YOU KNOW!

The more confident you are of the answers you do choose, the more your chances of skipping seven or eight questions will pay off.

Again the chief benefits / reasons for skipping any questions on the SAT – and no more than 8-- are

1) Having more time to work on the questions you feel are easiest; and

2) Not feeling rushed when taking the test; feeling relaxed. You know what your goal is, and you've got plenty of time to get there.

So:

1) Know what raw score you need to get 750 or 650.
2) Don't shoot for anything less than 650.
3) Use process of elimination effectively.

And above all. . .

4) HAVE FUN!

Review the tactics in Barron's, pages 20 – 23 in the latest edition, paying particular attention to #s, 1, 3, 4, 7, 10, 12, 15 and 16.

Think of the SAT as a game, and

Let's Play SAT!